A structured analysis of active and recent refinery outages, capacity disruptions, and supply chain impacts across major global refining regions — covering the current period and the preceding 60 days.
“Simultaneous disruptions across multiple regions are tightening global refined product balances at a historically sensitive moment.”
The confluence of Strait of Hormuz geopolitical disruption, a concentrated Northern Hemisphere maintenance season, and ongoing capacity restoration challenges across emerging markets is creating multi-directional pressure on refinery throughput globally. Aggregate unplanned and conflict-driven capacity losses are estimated in the range of 400–700 kb/d on a net basis, partially offset by restoration gains in West Africa and South America. Forward product markets are pricing in sustained tightness through mid-Q2 2026.
Germany
Continued feedstock diversification following Druzhba pipeline reconfiguration. Refinery operating at reduced throughput as alternative crude grades are integrated into processing configuration.
France
Scheduled Q1 turnaround of FCC and crude distillation units now entering restart phase. Product availability expected to normalise through Q2 2026 subject to unit performance.
United Kingdom
Ongoing operational pressure driven by feedstock procurement constraints and tightened trade finance conditions. Product output remains below nameplate capacity, with implications for UK diesel supply margins.
Italy
Scheduled hydrocracker maintenance completed. Facility returned to operational status in late February. Mediterranean product balances normalising.
Spain
Brief unplanned outage on secondary processing units following instrumentation fault. Full restart confirmed within the reporting window.
Regional
Strait of Hormuz commercial shipping disruption (estimated 80–85% traffic reduction) continues to affect feedstock delivery schedules across Gulf-based refining complexes. Multiple facilities operating at reduced intake rates pending logistics normalisation.
UAE
Ruwais complex managing feedstock rerouting with limited output impact to date, supported by domestic crude supply prioritisation. Regarded as a relative beneficiary of regional disruption due to pipeline-accessible crude.
Iraq
Partial restoration of capacity at the Baiji complex continues. Incremental restart of distillation units represents meaningful regional supply recovery, though full nameplate capacity restoration remains a longer-term project.
Iran
Sanctions compliance pressure and Hormuz disruption are materially reducing Iran's ability to move refined product exports. Domestic supply prioritisation ongoing. Estimated 11% of global urea-grade ammonia capacity indirectly affected.
Japan
Scheduled turnaround of crude distillation and vacuum distillation units completed within planned window. Restart confirmed. No material product supply disruption reported for regional markets.
China
A cluster of independent Chinese refiners has curtailed crude runs amid compressed refinery margins and feedstock import constraints linked to Hormuz-route disruptions. Aggregate output reduction is significant but distributed across numerous smaller facilities.
Singapore
Phased maintenance window across processing units at the Jurong Island complex. Partial return to operations underway. Singapore product pricing has reflected near-term tightening during the maintenance window.
South Korea
Partial unit shutdown associated with scheduled inspection programme. Restart completed within the reporting period.
India
Scheduled maintenance on secondary processing units. Restart confirmed. Reliance Jamnagar continues to operate near nameplate capacity, partially offsetting regional supply pressures.
United States
Adverse weather events in February 2026 triggered temporary operational curtailments across several Gulf Coast processing complexes. Phased restart completed through March, though operational reliability risks remain elevated ahead of hurricane season.
Venezuela
Incremental capacity restoration at PDVSA facilities as part of ongoing infrastructure rehabilitation programme. Progress remains constrained by equipment availability, skilled labour shortages, and trade finance limitations.
Brazil
RNEST continues its phased production ramp following prior operational setbacks. Incremental output is contributing to South American product balances, particularly diesel supply for inland distribution networks.
Canada
Extreme cold weather operational disruptions resolved. Facilities returned to normal throughput rates by mid-February.
Nigeria
West Africa's largest refinery continues Phase 1 ramp-up, currently estimated at approximately 55–65% of nameplate capacity. Diesel and petrol output is incrementally displacing import volumes. Full capacity utilisation remains subject to feedstock supply and operational stabilisation.
Libya
Intermittent disruptions to crude export flows from Es Sider are creating downstream feedstock uncertainty for Mediterranean refiners partially reliant on Libyan light crude grades. Political situation remains fluid.
Egypt
Planned expansion project facing commissioning delays attributable to equipment procurement lead times and contractor availability. Revised start-up timeline under review.
Estimated net kb/d impact (disruptions minus restorations). Indicative. Subject to revision.
The reduction in Strait of Hormuz commercial shipping traffic represents the single most consequential geopolitical disruption for global refinery operations in the current cycle. Approximately one-third of globally traded crude oil and refined products transit this chokepoint under normal conditions.
The estimated 80–85% reduction in commercial vessel transits is creating feedstock intake constraints across Gulf-based processing facilities, and is materially complicating letter of credit issuance for crude cargo financing in the affected corridor. The downstream impact extends beyond the Middle East to Asian refiners sourcing Gulf crude.
Existing and new sanctions measures — particularly those affecting Iranian crude and petrochemical flows — are adding a trade finance dimension to the physical disruption. Bank credit committees across Western financial institutions are applying heightened scrutiny to cargo documentation and counterparty compliance in conflict-adjacent corridors.
This is creating effective capacity constraints even at facilities with physical access to feedstock, where financing for cargo acquisition cannot be secured under acceptable terms. The phenomenon is most acute for facilities with limited balance sheet flexibility or non-investment-grade counterparty structures.
The structural reconfiguration of European refinery feedstock supply — accelerated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and subsequent sanctions architecture — continues to suppress throughput at facilities originally configured for Russian crude grades. Central European refiners are managing ongoing crude diet transitions, with associated efficiency and margin impacts that are expected to persist through at least H2 2026.
Libyan upstream and export infrastructure disruptions create recurring, unpredictable tightening in light, sweet crude availability for Mediterranean refiners. Given the high-quality characteristics of Libyan crude grades, outages tend to have an outsized per-barrel impact on downstream refinery economics relative to volume.
European diesel and ARA gasoil premiums elevated above seasonal norms. Hormuz disruption is reducing Gulf-origin distillate availability across Asia and partially constraining arbitrage flows to Europe.
Jet fuel crack spreads firming on combined maintenance-driven and geopolitical constraint. Singapore complex maintenance adds short-cycle tightening to Asia-Pacific jet supply.
Gasoline markets facing seasonal demand build. Near-term supply impact is moderate — Americas weather resolution and ongoing European restart are providing partial offset.
Naphtha availability for Asian petrochemical feedstock is tightening as Chinese independent run cuts reduce secondary-stream volumes. Spot premiums firming at key regional hubs.
High-sulphur fuel oil dynamics diverging regionally. Hormuz disruption affecting bunker demand patterns at key Gulf ports. Arbitrage flows to Asia partially disrupted.
Gulf LPG export logistics disrupted by Hormuz situation. Asian LPG markets seeing tightening on reduced Gulf origin availability. Propane-butane spreads widening.
This report has been prepared by Sterling Capital Growth LLC for informational purposes only. The content reflects analysis, interpretation, and opinions based on publicly available and third-party data sources which may be incomplete, inaccurate, or subject to change without notice. While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure the quality of the information presented, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness, or reliability.
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All analysis presented should be considered indicative and subject to revision as new information becomes available.